MACROSLM · VALUATIONDISCOUNTED CASH FLOW (DCF)

NIKE, Inc. (NYSE: NKE)
Unlevered FCF · 7-year explicit
Base date · 14 Jul 2026

INTRINSIC VALUATION

DCF valuation of Nike — a margin-recovery story the market is discountingBuilt on FY2025 actuals (year ended May 2025); forecast assumptions are interactive

Implied value / share

vs $43.66 market

Enterprise value

PV of FCF + terminal

Equity value

EV + net cash

Terminal value % of EV

reliance on terminal

EXHIBIT 1 — UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW FORECAST ($M)

FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

Revenue growth (CAGR)5.0%

Target EBIT margin12.5%

WACC (discount rate)8.5%

Terminal growth2.5%

PV of explicit FCF—

PV of terminal value—

Enterprise value—

+ Net cash$1,200M

Equity value—

÷ Shares (1,490M)—

EXHIBIT 2 — SENSITIVITY: IMPLIED VALUE / SHARE — WACC (down) × TERMINAL GROWTH (across)

Base year: NIKE, Inc. FY2025 actuals (52 weeks ended May 31, 2025) — revenue $46,300M, operating income (EBIT) $3,700M (8.0% margin, cyclically compressed in a turnaround year), D&A $775M (1.7% of revenue), capex $430M (0.9%), ~1,490M diluted shares; cash & short-term investments ≈ $9.2B against ≈ $8.0B debt → net cash ≈ +$1.2B; market price ~$43.66 (14 Jul 2026). Forecast (illustrative): tax 20% (normalized); ΔNWC 3% of revenue growth; EBIT margin ramps from 8.0% toward the target over five years (Nike's historical mid-cycle margin is ~12–13%). Unlevered FCF = EBIT×(1−tax) + D&A − capex − ΔNWC; terminal value via Gordon growth. The base case reflects a successful margin recovery — the key swing factor. Forecast assumptions are illustrative and interactive; not investment advice.