MACROSLM MARKET INTELLIGENCEGLOBAL EQUITY RESEARCH · COMPANY REPORT
COMPANY DEEP DIVEChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
NYSE: CMG · Restaurants — Fast Casual · United States
Coverage note As of 12 Jul 2026 Illustrative — not a recommendation
Market cap
$41.5B
Large-cap
P/E · TTM / FWD
27.9x / 25.5x
Premium to QSR
EV / EBITDA
19.2x
Above sector median
LTM revenue
$12.1B
▲ Mid-teens growth
Op. margin · FY24
16.9%
▲ +110 bps YoY
Best-in-class fast casual, compounding on units and throughput
Chipotle operates ~3,700 company-owned restaurants with no franchising, a rarity at its scale. The model pairs double-digit revenue growth with expanding restaurant-level and operating margins, funded internally and returned partly through buybacks. Digital is ~35% of sales, and "Chipotlanes" (drive-through digital pickup) lift new-unit returns.
WHAT DRIVES THE MODEL
Unit growth. Long runway toward a stated ~7,000 North American restaurants, most with Chipotlanes.
Throughput & pricing. Menu pricing power plus operational throughput drive same-store sales.
Company-owned. No franchising means full margin capture and brand control.
High returns. New units pay back quickly; growth is self-funded.
KEY FACTS
Restaurants (approx.)
~3,700
FY2024 revenue
$11,314M
FY2024 revenue growth
+14.6%
FY2024 operating margin
16.9%
FY2024 net income
$1,534M
Digital % of sales
~35%
Revenue compounding mid-teens with rising margins
REVENUE ($M) WITH OPERATING MARGIN LABEL
Fiscal year
Revenue ($M)
Growth
Op. margin
Net income ($M)
FY2022
8,635
+14.4%
13.4%
899
FY2023
9,872
+14.3%
15.8%
1,229
FY2024
11,314
+14.6%
16.9%
1,534
LTM (mid-2026)
12,140
n/a
~17%
~1,450
Priced as a premium compounder
CMG trades at ~28x trailing and ~25x forward earnings and ~19x EV/EBITDA — a clear premium to mature QSR, justified by faster growth, self-funded expansion, and high returns on invested capital. The forward multiple sits below trailing, implying the market prices continued earnings growth.
Metric
CMG
Read
Market capitalization
$41.5B
large-cap
P/E — trailing
27.9x
premium to QSR peers
P/E — forward
25.5x
implies earnings growth
EV / EBITDA
19.2x
above mature-restaurant median
LTM revenue
$12.1B
+mid-teens growth
Between mature QSR and hypergrowth small-caps
FAST-CASUAL & QSR COMPARABLES (approx., as of Jul 2026)
Company
Rev. growth
P/E (TTM)
EV/EBITDA
Chipotle (CMG)
~14%
27.9x
19.2x
Cava Group (CAVA)
~28%
n.m.
~55x
Wingstop (WING)
~25%
~75x
~48x
Shake Shack (SHAK)
~15%
~85x
~28x
Starbucks (SBUX)
~5%
~24x
~15x
McDonald's (MCD)
~5%
~24x
~17x
Darden (DRI)
~6%
~19x
~13x
Peer median (ex-CMG)
~15%
~24x
~28x
Bull and bear
BULL CASE
Unit runway. Path toward ~7,000 NA restaurants nearly doubles the base.
Margin expansion. Throughput, Chipotlanes, and pricing keep lifting operating margin.
Self-funded, high-ROIC growth with buybacks on top.
Digital moat. ~35% digital mix and loyalty deepen engagement.
BEAR CASE
Valuation. ~28x earnings leaves little room for a growth stumble.
Input & labor inflation can compress restaurant-level margin.
Law of large numbers. Sustaining mid-teens growth gets harder at scale.
Competition from Cava and other fast-casual entrants for share and talent.
Sources: Chipotle FY2022–FY2024 Forms 10-K (revenue, operating margin, net income); market data as of ~12 Jul 2026 (market cap $41.5B; P/E 27.9x TTM / 25.5x fwd; EV/EBITDA 19.2x; LTM revenue $12.1B). Peer multiples approximate and for context only. Illustrative deliverable — not a research recommendation or investment advice.