Cyber M&A splits into hypergrowth land-grabs and mature-platform roll-ups

Recent control transactions span a ~6x to ~32x EV/revenue range. Hypergrowth cloud and identity assets (Wiz, CyberArk) clear 24–32x on ARR and strategic scarcity; mature platforms and threat-intel (Splunk, Darktrace, Recorded Future) transact in the high-single digits. Screening a target against a blended median would badly misprice either end.

PROFILE click a column header to sort ↕

Announced	Acquirer / Target	EV	Target rev.	EV / Revenue ▼	Sub-sector	Profile	Consideration
Mar 2025	Wiz Google (Alphabet)	$32.0B	$1.0B*	32.0x	Cloud security	HYPERGROWTH	All-cash
Jul 2025	CyberArk Palo Alto Networks	$25.0B	$1.04B	24.0x	Identity security	HYPERGROWTH	Cash & stock
2022	SailPoint Thoma Bravo	$6.9B	$0.44B	15.7x	Identity governance	HYPERGROWTH	Cash (PE)
2023	KnowBe4 Vista Equity	$4.6B	$0.43B	10.7x	Security awareness	PLATFORM	Cash (PE)
Sep 2024	Recorded Future Mastercard	$2.65B	$0.30B	8.8x	Threat intelligence	PLATFORM	All-cash
Sep 2023	Splunk Cisco	$28.0B	$4.2B	6.7x	SIEM / observability	PLATFORM	All-cash
Apr 2024	Darktrace Thoma Bravo	$5.3B	$0.8B*	6.6x	AI network security	PLATFORM	Cash (PE)
Median (visible)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

EXHIBIT 1

EV / revenue by transaction (x)

ANALYST COMMENT

Two multiple regimes, one sector. The hypergrowth cohort — Wiz at 32x ARR, CyberArk at 24x, SailPoint at 16x — reflects strategic scarcity in cloud and identity, where acquirers pay for growth and platform control. The platform cohort — Splunk and Darktrace at ~6.6x, Recorded Future at 8.8x — prices mature, slower-growth revenue closer to public comps. Application to a live target: anchor to the cohort that matches the target's growth and gross-retention profile, not the blended median; the gap between the two regimes is wider than the dispersion within either.

Sources: public deal announcements and press coverage — Google/Wiz ($32.0B, ARR ≈ $1.0B); Palo Alto Networks/CyberArk (~$25B); Cisco/Splunk ($28B); Thoma Bravo/Darktrace (~$5.3B); Mastercard/Recorded Future ($2.65B, rev ≈ $0.3B); Thoma Bravo/SailPoint ($6.9B); Vista Equity/KnowBe4 ($4.6B). *Revenue shown at ARR or approximate LTM at announcement; EV/revenue therefore approximate. Enterprise values as announced. Illustrative deliverable; not investment advice. Filter and sort are interactive; median recomputes on the visible set.