§ 02Peer Z-scores · the EV-startup cohort
The legacy autos sit safely; the pure-play EV startups all sit in
distress. Z-score discriminates the cohort precisely — but doesn't say
which firms can survive distress through equity issuance and which
can't.
Q1 2026 Z-scores · automaker peer set
| Company |
Profile |
Z-score |
Cash ($B) |
Implied runway |
Zone |
| Rivian (RIVN) |
US EV startup |
−1.61 |
7.6 |
~21 months |
Distress |
| Lucid (LCID) |
US EV startup |
−2.85 |
3.4 |
~14 months |
Distress |
| NIO (NIO) |
China EV startup |
−1.28 |
5.9 |
~16 months |
Distress |
| Tesla (TSLA) |
US EV — profitable |
3.42 |
38.0 |
— |
Safe |
| Ford (F) |
Legacy auto · ICE+EV |
1.95 |
28.1 |
— |
Grey |
| GM (GM) |
Legacy auto · ICE+EV |
2.18 |
21.4 |
— |
Grey |