§ 04Rivian's Z-score over time

Direction matters as much as level. Z-score deterioration is more predictive than Z-score level. Rivian's score has improved off the 2023 trough but is decelerating.

RIVN Altman Z · trailing quarterly trend

Q1 2024

−3.14

Q3 2024

−2.88

Q1 2025

−2.45

Q3 2025

−1.92

Q1 2026 (latest)

−1.61

Distress threshold

1.81

Trajectory: Improving steadily over 8 quarters — driven primarily by revenue scale-up (factor E) and reduced operating loss (factor C). At this trajectory, Rivian crosses out of distress by Q3 2028 / Q1 2029, assuming margin and revenue trends continue.