Global Investment ResearchMACROSLM · Equity Research · Aerospace, Defense & Space
Space & Satellite
Sector note · 12 Jul 2026
Prices intraday, USD
COMPARABLE COMPANIES ANALYSIS

Two valuation regimes hiding in one comp set

Ahead of SpaceX's expected 2026 IPO, the group splits cleanly. Revenue names — Iridium (being taken out by Rocket Lab at ~9x sales) and Planet — generate cash and trade at single-to-low-double-digit multiples. Optionality names — SpaceX, AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab — trade at 50–160x sales on backlog and addressable market. A single blended multiple would obscure the distinction.
REGIME click a column header to sort ↕
CompanyTicker Mkt cap / val Revenue Rev growth EV / Revenue RegimeNote
SpaceXPrivate$800B$15.5B*n/d51.6xOPTIONALITYDec-25 secondary at $800B ($421/sh); IPO expected 2026. *Total rev est.; Starlink $11.4B disclosed (FY25)
AST SpaceMobileASTS$28.5B$0.18Bn.m.163xOPTIONALITYPre-revenue; FY26E guide $150–200M. Priced on direct-to-cell TAM
Rocket LabRKLB$47B$0.60B+38%78.1xOPTIONALITYFY25 rev $602M (+38%); backlog $1.85B; acquiring Iridium at $8.0B EV
Intuitive MachinesLUNR$4.4B$0.21Bguide21.0xOPTIONALITYFY25 rev $210M; FY26E guide $0.9–1.0B on lunar/SDA ramp
Planet LabsPL$9.3B$0.31B+26%30.2xREVENUEFY26 rev $307.7M (+26%); record year, AI/defense demand
Iridium CommsIRDM$8.0B$0.87B+5%9.2xREVENUEFY25 rev $872M, op. EBITDA $495M (57%). Take-out by RKLB at $8.0B EV ($54/sh)
Peer median (ex-SpaceX)recomputes on visible peers

ANALYST COMMENT

Do not median across the two regimes. The revenue cohort — Iridium at 9.2x sales on a 57% EBITDA margin, Planet at 30x growing 26% — is genuinely comparable and cash-anchored. Rocket Lab (78x), AST SpaceMobile (163x), and SpaceX (~52x on estimated revenue) are priced on addressable-market optionality, not near-term sales. The transaction that makes the point: Rocket Lab is acquiring Iridium at ~9x sales — using its own 78x optionality multiple as acquisition currency to add $872M of profitable, recurring revenue. That is the arbitrage the split creates, and a single blended multiple would have hidden it.

Sources: company filings and press releases (Rocket Lab, Iridium, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, AST SpaceMobile FY2025/FY2026 results); SpaceX Dec-2025 secondary ($800B). Market capitalizations as of ~12 Jul 2026; figures rounded. EV/Revenue approximated as valuation ÷ revenue (peers are near net-cash). Disclosure: illustrative analysis prepared by MacrosLM for demonstration; not a research recommendation, offer, or solicitation, and not investment advice. Filter and sort are interactive; peer median recomputes on the visible set.