Contracted growth carries the debt — and the deleveraging is underway
CoreWeave scaled revenue to $5.13bn in FY2025 (+167%) at a 60% adjusted-EBITDA margin, against a $66.8bn contracted backlog. The take-or-pay hyperscaler book supports the leverage that funded the GPU build; customer concentration and a $1.17bn GAAP net loss cap the rating. Leverage, ~6.9x at YE2024, is on a path toward Moody's ≤3.5x target.
MACROSLM IMPLIED RATING
BB−
▲ Outlook: Positive
Speculative grade; split-rated across agencies. Rating tracks leverage — move the slider.
Contracted revenue. A $66.8bn multi-year take-or-pay backlog (≈13x FY25 revenue) from hyperscalers and AI labs underpins debt service through the capex build.
Best-in-class margin. 60% adjusted-EBITDA margin ($3.1bn) gives real cash generation before capex.
Deleveraging path. Leverage falling from ~6.9x (YE2024) toward Moody's ≤3.5x target as EBITDA scales faster than debt.
CREDIT CONCERNS
Customer concentration. Top two customers were 77% of FY2024 revenue; a single renewal decision is a rating event.
Capex outruns cash flow. Free cash flow stays negative through at least 2026, funded by additional debt and asset-backed facilities.
Technology / residual risk. GPU generations depreciate fast; collateral value is sensitive to the AI capex cycle.
As rated (2025): Moody's Ba3 CFR (stable), senior notes B1; S&P issuer B+ (outlook revised to positive), notes B; Fitch notes BB− (RR4). Rating sensitivities — upgrade: Debt/EBITDA sustained ≤3.5x with a path to positive post-capex cash flow; downgrade: loss or renegotiation of a top customer, or leverage re-rising above ~6.5x. Disclosure: illustrative MacrosLM analytical assessment based on disclosed figures (FY2025 results, agency actions); not a rating-agency opinion, research recommendation, or investment advice. The leverage stress is interactive; total debt is implied as leverage × FY25 EBITDA.